1) Executive summary / Overview

Olive & York is a 5-year old Shopify-based e-commerce brand focused on soccer kits and fan merchandise (custom jerseys, hats, scarves, vintage pieces and some apparel). The business operates a mostly on-demand manufacturing model (no owned inventory), is run by a very small team (founder <20 hrs/week, 1 designer on retainer, one US shipping partner), and reports unusually high margins (reported profit margin ~63%). The brand has strong on-site social proof (Judge.me reviews ~1.9k, avg rating ~4.9) and an active social presence on Instagram and X. These strengths combine with a large untapped paid growth opportunity (seller reports no paid ads historically) to create an attractive, short-term scaling play — but there are material data inconsistencies and standard legal/IP, supplier, and documentation risks that must be cleared before signing.

2) Key insights (high level)

• High unit economics — seller-provided numbers show an AOV of $114 and reported profit margin ~63%, implying strong per-order contribution if accurate (seller-provided).

• Low upfront capital / inventory risk thanks to make-to-order / drop-ship supply chain — attractive from a working-capital standpoint (seller-provided).

• Excellent on-site social proof (Judge.me ≈ 1,800–1,900 reviews, ~4.9 stars) which supports price elasticity and premium positioning.

• SKU breadth + product depth: site collections indicate large catalog breadth (e.g., Kits collection shows 141 products; Apparel pages list 150–170+ items), enabling cross-sell and email monetization.

• Untapped paid channels: Seller says no Google/FB/IG ads used historically — realistic low-hanging fruit for scaling customer acquisition. (seller-provided)

• Seasonality & event leverage: spikes tied to tournaments (2022 World Cup) — 2026 U.S. World Cup is a clear demand catalyst.

3) Website Performance & Metrics (what we analyzed + gaps)

What we can verify publicly:

• Platform: site is Shopify-powered (multi-currency and broad accepted payments visible).

• Product / review evidence: Kits collection (≈141 products) and Judge.me review feed (~1.9k reviews).  

Requested / missing metrics you MUST get from seller (critical):

• Exact monthly visitors (GA4), channel breakdown (social/search/direct) — required to calculate true conversion rate and CAC.

• Shopify/Stripe payout exports and reconciled P&L for the last 12–24 months (to confirm revenue, COGS, refunds, fees).

• Repeat customer / returning purchase rate, cohort LTV (Shopify/Klaviyo cohort export).

• Actual number of SKUs vs live product pages (some “collection counts” are shown publicly; confirm SKU vs variant counts).

Quick estimates and notes (useful but not a substitute for seller data):

• AOV: seller-stated $114 (we used this for modeling). (Seller provided.)

• Conversion rate: not published — industry baseline for niche e-commerce: 1.0–3.0%. Because Olive & York has engaged niche followers, a conservative working estimate for planning would be ~1.5%, but do not rely on this — demand seller analytics.

• Repeat rate / CLTV: not provided. Request Shopify cohort table.

• Website speed / Lighthouse scores: we could not find a public PageSpeed report — buyer should request either a current PageSpeed/Lighthouse report or temporary read-only access to GA4/Shopify so you can run them. (Site is image-heavy and Shopify-hosted; typical theme tweaks can improve mobile speed.)

4) Financials (Tabular summary — seller-provided figures and calculated multiples)

Important: The listing contains conflicting revenue figures (seller listed average annual revenue $282k in some text, Annual Revenue $366,266 in a data box, and 2024 + YTD: $507,392 elsewhere). These contradictions are a major red flag — demand P&L & bank statements. Below we present the numbers as given, then calculated valuation multiples.

Seller-provided / reported numbers

Calculated valuation / payback math (using the $366,266 / $229,266 figures):

• Asking price / Annual profit = 285,000 / 229,266 ≈ 1.24× profit. (≈1.2× profit multiple; buyer is paying ~1.24x reported profit.)

• Asking price / Annual revenue = 285,000 / 366,266 ≈ 0.78× revenue. (≈0.8× revenue multiple.)

• Months to recover price at current monthly profit = 285,000 / 19,105 ≈ 14.9 months (≈1.24 years).

(If the true 2024 YTD revenue of $507,392 is the correct annualized revenue, the revenue multiple implied by the asking price is ~0.56×.)

Red flags in the numbers:

• Orders (2,732) vs Customers (18,945) is inconsistent (customers > orders). This looks like mislabeling (perhaps the “customers” number is email subscribers). Do not accept these figures until reconciled with Shopify exports and merchant payout reports.

5) Marketing (Paid & Organic) — Current state & opportunity

Current (public / seller)

• Organic social is the main traffic driver — Instagram account shows ~15k followers and X account ~12–13k followers (seller says “nearly 30k across channels”; verify combined metrics). Social is active and brand-oriented.  

• On-site reviews & social proof are strong (Judge.me ≈ 1.9k reviews). This supports conversion and a potential paid retargeting strategy.

• Email list: seller lists either 9k+ or 18.5k (conflict) — email is a critical growth lever if real.

Opportunities (high ROI, low risk):

1. Paid social ads (IG/FB/X Threads): seller has never used paid ads — a controlled test budget could quickly validate CPA and scale.

2. Retargeting + abandoned cart flows via Klaviyo / Shopify — monetizes existing traffic and reviews.

3. SEO / content: vintage jerseys and “past releases” can perform well for organic search over time (evergreen content).

4. B2B channel (clubs & leagues) — formalize recurring contracts or bulk discounts to increase order size and lower CAC.

5. International expansion ahead of 2026 World Cup — translate targeted landing pages and test paid geo campaigns (UK/Canada/Mexico/CONCACAF).

Simple paid-growth scenarios (illustrative):
 Using seller AOV $114 and seller margin ~63% (gross profit per order ≈ $71.82) — assume advertising CACs:

Conclusion: if AOV / margin are accurate, paid channels can be profitable even at CACs in the $30–50 range. These are scenario models — you must test with small spend and measure real CAC & return.

6) Operational Efficiency & Supply Chain

What we verified / seller claims

• Make-to-order model; factories in China, Pakistan, Turkey (contacts transferable with sale). Turnaround from finalized design to delivery ~4–7 weeks depending on product. (seller-provided; similar lead times appear in product pre-order descriptions on the site).  

• US shipping partner (1099) handles Shopify fulfillment and shipping.

• Designer handles customer design interactions (ongoing retainer) — founder primarily coordinates and sends print files.

Operational strengths

• Low inventory risk and minimal capex.

• Simple team makes the business transfer relatively straightforward (but creates key-person risk).

Operational risks

• Lead time 4–7 weeks may not scale during tournament spikes (e.g., World Cup) — risk of backorders and reputational damage.  

• Key person / designer dependency — if the designer does creative selling and client relationships, losing them would harm conversion and onboarding for clubs. Request employment/contract stability.

• Shipping cost leakage — seller noted shipping could be optimized (more orders routed to Pakistan vs China to save cost) — obtain shipping invoices and fulfillment SLAs.

7) Customer Data & Relationships

• Email list & CRM: conflicting numbers (9k vs 18.5k). Request raw export (CSV) from Klaviyo/Mailchimp with tags, purchase history, open/click rates, and revenue attribution.

• Loyalty / repeat customers: not provided. Ask for a Shopify “customers” export and top 50 customers by revenue.

• Refunds / chargebacks / complaints: ask for monthly refund rate and chargeback history. Judge.me shows positive sentiment but third-party platform coverage (Trustpilot) appears absent — recommend verifying authenticity of reviews and whether any negative disputes exist.  

8) Legal & Compliance Due Diligence (Must-have checklist)

Immediate items to request and verify:

1. Formal P&L and balance sheet for last 12–24 months (seller-prepared + CPA prepared if available).

2. Shopify & payment processor payout reports (Stripe/Shopify payouts) for same period; reconcile to P&L and bank statements.

3. Tax returns (business owner’s returns) for last 2 years.

4. Supplier contracts and email history (terms, MOQs, IP assignments, lead times). Confirm whether factories have been assigned rights for designs and whether there are exclusivity/volume agreements.

5. Customer contracts / B2B agreements (if any clubs have formal purchase agreements) — many orders appear informal.

6. IP & licensing: documentation proving permission to reproduce any club logos/registered marks (if the business ever sold items with third-party marks). If the business relies on custom art only, confirm no trademark infringement exposure. This is critical for a sports apparel company.

7. Insurance — product liability and business insurance copies.

8. Employment / contractor agreements (designer retainer, shipping partner contract) — is the designer willing to stay on? Is there a transition plan?

9. Terms of service / returns policy (live on site) and any outstanding legal claims.

10. Privacy & data processing compliance (GDPR, CCPA if applicable) and request any data breach history.

Special note on reviews / Trustpilot: public research shows many Judge.me reviews (on-site), but no authoritative Trustpilot presence was found — that’s not fatal but worth confirming. On-site reviews are strong; third-party review presence (Google/Trustpilot) would add buyer confidence and is an easy marketing lift for the buyer.  

9) Challenges Identified (Summary)

1. Conflicting / incomplete financial claims (different revenue figures on the listing) — must reconcile with bank and merchant statements.

2. Data labeling errors (orders vs customers vs emails) — indicates sloppy bookkeeping or copy/paste listing creation.

3. Key-person dependency (founder + designer + shipping partner). Transition risk if they don’t stay.

4. Lead time & fulfillment scalability during high-volume periods (4–7 week turnaround).

5. IP/licensing exposure risk if reproducing official marks without licenses.

6. Low historical use of paid acquisition — means single-channel risk (over-reliant on organic social).

7. Low multiples relative to profit — the asking price is reasonable to cheap on paper, but the discount may reflect some of the above risks.

10) Recommendations (Clear, actionable next steps)

Immediate diligence (document requests before LOI)

• Mandatory: 12 months (preferably 24) of P&L, tax returns, Shopify payouts, merchant bank statements, and top 100 customer order export.

• Mandatory: Shopify read-only access or CSV exports (orders, customers, products, discount codes, refunds).

• Mandatory: Supplier contact list, contracts, average lead times, and shipping invoices for last 12 months.

• Mandatory: Designer/contractor agreements and confirmation of transition willingness.

• Ask seller to explain conflicting numbers (e.g., $366k vs $507k vs $282k) in writing and produce reconciled statements.

Negotiation / structure suggestions

• LOI conditional on full verification. Make acquisition contingent on receiving and approving financials and supplier due diligence.

• Consider an earn-out / holdback (e.g., 70–85% upfront, 15–30% held for 6–12 months for revenue/representation warranty) to protect against overstated revenue.

• Retain founder/designer for transition (paid transition period, or performance-based retention for 3–6 months).

• Price renegotiation room: given conflicting data and operational risks, a conservative buyer could reasonably target ≤1.0× reported annual profit (i.e., below the current asking multiple), conditioned on clean books. But if verified and 2024 growth validates the higher revenue, the asking price at ~1.24× profit is fair for a low-capex, high-margin business with immediate scale options.

Short-term growth plan (first 90–180 days after close)

1. Run paid ad GCAs: $5–15k/month test split across IG + X + Google Shopping; measure CAC, ROAS, and scale winners.

2. Implement retention flows in Klaviyo: abandoned cart, post-purchase welcome/upsell, winback.

3. Negotiate improved shipping routing and bulk factory pricing (move higher volume to lower-cost factory where quality is equal).

4. Launch B2B outreach: package club service agreements for season-long kits (higher AOV, predictable reorder cadence).

5. Add a verified third-party review presence (Google/Trustpilot) and promote Judge.me UGC for ad creatives.

Conclusion

Olive & York presents a classic margin-rich, asset-light e-commerce opportunity in a passionate, event-driven niche (soccer). The brand has clear upside: strong on-site social proof, an engaged audience, and no historical paid channel spend — all of which point to rapid, relatively low-risk scaling if the core numbers verify.

The single most important next step: require the seller to produce reconciled financials (Shopify payouts + bank statements + tax returns) and to clarify the conflicting revenue figures before any binding offer. If financials check out, the asking price ($285k) roughly matches the seller’s profit multiple (~1.24× on the figures provided) and could be a good buy for a buyer willing to invest in paid acquisition and operational tightening. If the financials are inconsistent or incomplete, treat the listing as high-risk and use contingencies/holdbacks in any offer.

Appendix — Immediate Documents & reports to request

1. Last 24 months: P&L, balance sheet, tax returns (business & owner if necessary).

2. Shopify export: orders.csv, customers.csv, products.csv (with SKUs/variants), discounts.csv, refunds.csv, merchant payouts.

3. Payment processor (Stripe/Shopify payments/PayPal) payout exports & bank statements for same period.

4. Top 100 customers by revenue and contactability list.

5. Email platform export (Klaviyo/Mailchimp): subscribers, segments, revenue attribution, open/click rates.

6. Shipping invoices and carrier contracts for past 12 months.

7. Supplier contracts, lead times, MOQs, email history with factories and any NDAs.

8. Copies of contractor agreements (designer retainer, shipping partner) and confirmation they will remain for transition.

9. Evidence of any legal claims, IP complaints, or takedown notices.

10. Current product cost breakdown (COGS per SKU) and manufacturing price lists.

11. Current page speed (Lighthouse) report or temporary access to run one.

12. Any advertising history (if any) and creative assets (for immediate A/B testing).